🟠 This will trigger the 2024 bull run

GM.

It’s Arsen, bringing you the 18th edition of TLDR Bitcoin - the newsletter that is more valuable than your grandma’s chocolate chip cookie recipe.

First, happy Sunday to 1,601 of you reading today.

I’m chilling this week with the Relai Team in Istanbul, Turkey, at the bi-annual #relaisummit. I won’t have time to write the usual news, so I’m doing something different.

I will discuss a significant event triggering the next face-melting bull run.

Wen moon? Soon moon.

You didn’t ask for it, but here is an intimate picture of me and Relai CEO, Julian sharing a bed.

Roast us by replying to this email. If my body can take Julian, it can take your diss too.

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 43 seconds

The bull market is coming. I know it. You know it. Peter Schiff knows it.

In fact, it’s coming in late 2024. Most people will be clueless as to why Bitcoin is pumping. Not you. You will know because you’re reading this email.

I’m talking about a unique event that happens every year: the halving

And no, it’s not the “hAlveNiNg”. If you think it is, stfu.

Anyways, you know what I’m talking about, And if not, sit on Uncle Arsen’s lap as I explain.

What is the halving?

The halving is a planned 50% reduction of new coins mined. This happens every 210,000 blocks or every four years.

When Bitcoin launched, miners received 50 BTC per block. Since then, the block rewards have halved every 4 years:

1. 2012: 25 BTC

2. 2016: 12.5 BTC

3. 2020: 6.25 BTC

4. 2024: 3.12 BTC

This mechanism is the key to Bitcoin’s scarcity. It was the missing piece in Satoshi’s effort to create “hard money.”

Why halving will trigger the bull run

Now, it’s no secret that bull runs follow halving events.

Why? Simple law of supply and demand: the scarcer the asset —> the more demand —> higher the price.

But first, let’s establish what scarcity means. Scarcity = the number of units an asset has/demand for this asset.

As the block rewards get cut in half, even having the same amount of Bitcoin buyers will increase the price. Nothing needs to change regarding buy demand for Bitcoin’s price to increase. Welcome to economics, frens.

Bitcoin will become EXTREMELY SCARCE. Here’s the math:

Currently, 900 BTC are produced daily. After that:

• 2024: 450 per day

• 2028: 225 per day

• 2032: 112.5 per day

• 2036: 56.25 per day

In only 13 years, the new supply will decrease 16x. And this will keep happening every 16 years until 2140.

However, the effect of halvings on cycles seems to be getting less significant.

Take a look at how the cycles compare:

1. 2012 halving to 2014: 11.000%

2. 2016 halving to 2017: 3685%

3. 2020 halving to 2022: 685%

4. 2024 halving to zyx: ??

What will the price of Bitcoin be?

Well, no idea. BUT, if you look at the rough historical prices, Bitcoin tends to 10x every halving (this is what the brits call a ‘tenner’).

This would imply a $500,000 per BTC. Yup, you read that right.

Lots of pumps expected.

So, what can you do to prepare for the bullrun? Simple: stack sats.

As I explained above, bitcoin will gradually become scarcer and scarcer even if only the same people keep buying. Now think about the extra demand there will be once Bitcoin is adopted.

Yeah, it’ll get crazy.

Credit: @RD_btc

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That’s it for this one. Hope you enjoyed this special newsletter :)

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See you next Sunday,

Arsen

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