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Good morning - Arsen here. ☕

Welcome back to Bitcoin Therapy. The newsletter that keeps you informed AND entertained.

First, happy and relaxing Sunday to 3,793 patients reading today. 👋 

FOMO.

That’s the emotion I have as I write this intro.

All the stars are aligned for a face-melting bull run.

Also, I’ve signed up for a half marathon. If you have any tips, let me know! 🏃

Alright, here’s what I got for you this week:

• Bitcoin to hit $360,000 (conservative estimate)

• BlackRock’s degenerate Bitcoin strategy

• Do you know the ‘Rule of 10 days” (because you should)"?

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 43 seconds

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BITCOIN TO HIT $360,000?

3 things in life are certain:

1. Death

2. Taxes

3. Goldbugs being butthurt about Bitcoin

Inside the mysterious mind of a gold bug, Gold is somehow better than Bitcoin.

And I get them: Gold is amazing!

It’s hard, heavy…easy to fake…very hard to divide…. and it’s a cool yellow color?

OK, I changed my mind: Gold sucks

BUT, Gold is still a similiar asset to Bitcoin. And by looking at Gold’s past performance, we can estimate how well Bitcoin will do.

Check this out: if you line up the dates when gold and bitcoin ETFs launched, you see how much potential Bitcoin has:

Gold did a ~ 6x after a gold ETF launch.

If Bitcoin does 6x at current price = $360,000 per Bitcoin

Now, I want to highlight that this is a conservative scenario:

1. Bitcoin, unlike Gold, has absolute scarcity (which means it is physically impossible to create more Bitcoin. Gold can be mined from the ground)

2. Bitcoin is a safe asset. I expect lots of capital to flee there as the world’s fiat currencies keep melting away.

So yeah. Just add a few zeros to our estimate. Atta boy.

And before you call me crazy (I am, but not for this reason), I’m not alone.

Two top Bloomberg ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and Andre Yapp, released a bullish report.

TLDR? Bitcoin ETF will overtake Gold ETF in 2 years.

Bitcoin is like Gold but better in EVERY way. Literally.

Prepare to see gold bugs screeching and crying for the next 5 years. It’s going to be glorious.

BLACKROCK’S CRAZY BITCOIN STRATEGY

28%.

Am I talking about how many more Skittles I ate this week? No.

Am I talking about those ads that promise to increase your 🍆? No.

Am I talking about BlackRock’s optimal BItcoin portfolio allocation? YES.

The word on the street is that BlackRock held a private event for institutional clients.

They had a quant give a presentation about what kind of Bitcoin portfolio allocations make sense.

His suggestion? 28% Bitcoin allocation

That’s wild, considering that BlackRock’s clients are conservative institutions

I have a feeling I know who this “quant” was:

OK, I’m joking. Not about the event, though. It did take place.

I dont know about you, but a 28% allocation is ridiculous to me. The quant’s math was off by about 72%!

OK, let’s entertain this idea: 28% allocation = $2.8 Trillion of BlackRock’s AUM (assets under management).

That’s a lot of $$$ flowing to the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

Do you hear the bulls? They’re near.

Never mind, that was my belly.

DON’T MISS THESE 10 DAYS

I’m a big proponent of Bitcoin DCA.

It takes away all emotion from your saving.

And most importantly, it allows you to benefit from “Rule of 10 Best Days”.

What’s that? I'm glad you asked!

Here’s how it works:

• Most of Bitcoin returns happen in 10 days

• And if you miss those days, you miss most of Bitcoin returns

Here’s an example:

*whips out calculator*

1. Look at Bitcoin for the past 5 years

2. Remove the top 5 days with the biggest returns

3. Total bitcoin returns drop from 348% —>83%

AND if you remove the top 10 days, the returns go from 348% —> 10% loss

That’s wild.

What YOU need to know is this has been happening since 2013.

And it’s happening again:

So, what’s the lesson here? Stop trying to time the market.

If you think you can time 10 days out of 365, please slap yourself.

It’s really that simple. Just buy weekly and hodl that sh*t.

QUICK NEWS⚡

• Coinbase goes down as Bitcoin pumps (this is how you know the bull market is officially here)

• Relai launches Lightning Wallet on Product Hunt. If you want to help us, here is how 💙

• Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley plans to get into Bitcoin ETF (pump my bags!)

THIS WEEK IN A MEME 📅

FROM THE ARCHIVE 📁

Kev knew.

PATIENT REVIEW 🧠

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See you next Sunday,

Bitcoin Therapy Team