🟠 $10 million bitcoin is conservative. Here's why:

GM.

It’s Arsen, bringing you the 19th edition of TLDR Bitcoin - the Ferrari of Bitcoin content. Fast, exciting, and gets you the girls.

First, happy Sunday to 1,611 of you reading today. I’m still traveling, so this week’s email will be another short one.

I’m talking about how big Bitcoin can grow. A topic widely misunderstood by no-coiners and bitcoiners alike. Got your attention? Cool, let’s dive in.

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 4 seconds

“How high can Bitcoin price go?”

The age-old question.

If you’re one of those people who think Bitcoin will go to infinity….please stop.

Let me explain. You won’t find someone more bullish on Bitcoin than me. But we have to be realistic.

There are two ways to look at Bitcoin’s potential:

1/ Bitcoin VS USD

This makes no sense since there is no limit to how many dollars can be created. This makes the dollar a poor unit of account. Bitcoin can theoretically go to infinity when measured in fiat.

Here’s how YOU SHOULD think about it:

2/ Bitcoin VS other store-of-value assets

Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin compares to other SOV assets.

Now we all know that the store of value market is bloated. Just like you, the morning after a night out with the boys.

Here’s what I mean by SOV assets:

• Real Estate

• Fine art

• Precious metals

• Stock market

• Bonds

• Money

If you assume that Bitcoin becomes a widely used SOV asset, it will capture some of the value that is currently parked in other similar assets. But how much? 5%? 12%? 50%?

Well, no idea. But it’s fun to play around with the numbers and see at what valuation we end with.

This brilliant chart from estimates how much value Bitcoin captures from other SOV assets. He calls his estimate “conservative”:

Jesse estimates these assets' total addressable market (TAM) is $900 trillion. Bitcoin is a $1 trillion market or a measly 0.05% of the total market. That’s peanuts.

But let’s run with the numbers above: bitcoin sucks in $200 trillion from alternative SOV assets and will account for 25% of the world’s value.

This would mean $10 million per bitcoin. Nope, not a typo.

So next time your family says “bItCoIn iS tOo eXpeNsIvE”, slap them and show them this chart.

However, I do agree with Jesse: these estimates are conservative.

Why?

Because they assume fiat and the bond market still exist. If Bitcoin becomes global money, you can wave bye-bye to fiat money. This means 100% of the $120 trillion parked in fiat will flow into Bitcoin.

The bond market will still exist, but it will be only a fraction of the $300 trillion currently. A chunk of that value will flow to Bitcoin, in my opinion.

So, bitcoin still has a lot of room to grow. The time to get your slice of the 21 million digital pie is NOW.

Generational wealth, here we come!

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That’s it for this one. Hope you enjoyed another special newsletter :)

I will be back with the usual news soon! In the meantime, let me know what you think of these shorter emails about 1 topic.

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See you next Sunday,

Arsen